World supply, demand and price outlook for oilseeds and oils. Palm oil and its key competitors
Publicación:
Revista Palmas; Vol. 21 Núm. especial, (2000); 84-104
0121-2923
Revista Palmas; Vol. 21 Núm. especial, (2000); 84-104
0121-2923
Abstract
The last 1-2 years were characterized by excessive world supplies, mainly of palm oil but also of rapeseed and rape oil, which led to a sharp decline of prices for oils and fats. The analysis of supply and demand fundamentals up to the current season and the present outlook for 2000/01 suggest that a turning point has now been reached. A major focus of this paper will be to define the pronounced effects the low prices had on both the supply and the demand side. Rapidly growing demand for oilseeds and oils are now coinciding with downward adjustments of oilseed production as well as slower growth in palm oil output. This combination has started to become supportive for prices but several uncertainties must be considered, e.g. the size of US crops and next year's South American crops. One important factor for palm oil will be that it is going to face reduced competition from seed oils in the upcoming season. However, the longer-term prospect of slower palm oil production growth in Southeast Asia creates opportunities for palm oil producers in other countries and a challenge for the industry as a whole. Los últimos dos años se caracterizaron por excesivas ofertas mundiales, especialmente de aceite de palma, pero también de semilla y aceite de colza, lo cual condujo a un marcado descenso en los precios de los aceites y grasas. Los análisis de los fundamentos de la oferta y la demanda hasta la actual temporada y las perspectivas actuales para los años 2000/01, sugieren que se ha llegado a un punto de cambio. Un enfoque principal de este artículo será definir los pronunciados efectos que los precios bajos tuvieron tanto en el lado de la oferta como en el de la demanda. Una demanda de semillas oleaginosas y aceites que crece rápidamente está coincidiendo ahora con ajustes hacia abajo de la producción de semillas oleaginosas, así como un crecimiento más lento en la producción total de aceite de palma. Esta combinación ha comenzado a convertirse en sustentadora para los precios, pero se tienen que considerar varias incertidumbres; por ejemplo, el tamaño de los cultivos de los Estados Unidos y de Suramérica del año entrante. Un factor importante para el aceite de palma es que va a enfrentar una competencia reducida de los aceites de semillas en la próxima temporada. Sin embargo, los prospectos a largo plazo de un crecimiento de la producción de aceite de palma más lento al sudeste de Asia crean oportunidades para productores de aceite de palma en otros países y un reto para la industria como un todo.
The last 1-2 years were characterized by excessive world supplies, mainly of palm oil but also of rapeseed and rape oil, which led to a sharp decline of prices for oils and fats. The analysis of supply and demand fundamentals up to the current season and the present outlook for 2000/01 suggest that a turning point has now been reached. A major focus of this paper will be to define the pronounced effects the low prices had on both the supply and the demand side. Rapidly growing demand for oilseeds and oils are now coinciding with downward adjustments of oilseed production as well as slower growth in palm oil output. This combination has started to become supportive for prices but several uncertainties must be considered, e.g. the size of US crops and next year's South American crops. One important factor for palm oil will be that it is going to face reduced competition from seed oils in the upcoming season. However, the longer-term prospect of slower palm oil production growth in Southeast Asia creates opportunities for palm oil producers in other countries and a challenge for the industry as a whole.
Palabras clave:
aceite de palma
aceites
grasas
oferta y demanda
consumo
competitividad
precios
mercados mundiales
aceite de palma
aceites
grasas
oferta y demanda
consumo
competitividad
precios
mercados mundiales