Climate warming effects on some agricultural systems
Author
Gutiérrez, Andrew P.
Ponti, Luigi
Ken Ellis, C.
d'Oultremont, Thibaud
Como citar
Publicación:
Revista Palmas; Vol. 28 Núm. especial, (2007); 304-325
0121-2923
Revista Palmas; Vol. 28 Núm. especial, (2007); 304-325
0121-2923
Abstract
Species of plants and animals have requirements for growth, survival and reproduction that determine their geographic distribution, abundance, and interactions with other species. To analyze this complexity requires the development of models that include the effects of biotic and abiotic factors on species dynamics. The need for such capacity has increased as we face the threat of global warming. In this paper, tri-trophic system models of alfalfa, cotton, grape, olive and the noxious weed yellow star thistle are used to explore various aspects of climate warming on agriculture in California. General physiologically based demographic models that apply to all species in all trophic levels are used to simulate the effects on system dynamics of observed weather and those projected by climate change models. Geographic Information System (GIS) technology is used to map the predicted effects across the varied ecological zones of California, and marginal analysis of linear multiple regression models of simulation output is used to analyze biological interactions as affected by weather. The predictions of the biological models on the geographic distribution and abundance of the various species examined accords well with field observations. Furthermore, the models predict how the geographic range of the different species in the system listed above would be affected by climate change. Among the findings are: 1. Annual crops can be easily moved to new areas as regional favorableness changes while reestablishment of long-lived species (e.g., grape and olive) would be costly in terms of time and money. The geographic range of tree species requiring chilling to break dormancy (vernalization) may be limited in some areas due to climate warming, but the range may expand in others. For example, the range of olive would contract in the southern part of the state due to lack of chilling, and expand in northern areas until limited by low winter temperatures. Similar predictions could be made for pome and stone fruit crops. 2. Pest distribution and abundance would also be affected. For example, climate warming would allow pink bollworm in cotton to expand its range into formerly inhospitable areas of the San Joaquin Valley, and damage rates would increase throughout cotton?s range. The distribution and abundance of economically important pests such as olive fly, the Mediterranean fruit fly and others could be similarly affected. In addition, species dominance in food webs could change (e.g. in alfalfa) and the biological control of invasive species might be adversely affected (e.g. vine mealy bug in grape). The distribution and abundance of invasive weeds such as yellow star thistle would also be altered, and its control by extant and new biological control agents would be difficult to predict due to the differential effects of climate change on each species and on their biological interactions. 3. Major deficiencies were identified by our capacity to predict the effects of climate change on biological systems. For example, there is a need to improve existing and develop new physiologically based system models of the major cropping systems so as to better forecast the effects of climate change on system components. The models could be used to guide biological control efforts on extant and new exotic pests. The need to expand weather data gathering systems, especially the collection of solar radiation data on a fine grid in time and space was an unexpected finding. Las especies de plantas y animales tienen requisitos para su crecimiento, supervivencia y reproducción, que determinan su distribución geográfica, abundancia e interacciones con otras especies. Con el fin de analizar esta complejidad, se precisa el desarrollo de modelos que incluyan los efectos de los factores bióticos y abióticos en la dinámica de las especies. Este es un aspecto de creciente importancia al tener que enfrentar la amenaza del calentamiento global. En este artículo, se utilizan los modelos del sistema tritrófico de la alfalfa, el algodón, la uva, el olivo y la maleza nociva cardo estrellado amarillo, para explorar varios aspectos del calentamiento climático sobre la agricultura en California. Los modelos fisiológicos generales basados en la demografía que se aplican a todas las especies en todos los niveles tróficos, se utilizan para simular los efectos en la dinámica del sistema meteorológico observado y aquellos modelos proyectados de cambio climático. La tecnología del sistema de información geográfica (SIG) se utiliza para cartografiar los efectos previstos a lo largo de variadas zonas ecológicas de California, y el análisis marginal de los modelos de regresión lineal múltiple del resultado de simulación, se utiliza para analizar las interacciones biológicas y el efecto del clima. Los pronósticos de los modelos biológicos en la distribución y abundancia geográficas de las diversas especies examinadas, concuerdan bien con las observaciones en el terreno. Además, los modelos permiten predecir cómo el rango geográfico de las diferentes especies en el sistema, que se presenta anteriormente, puede verse afectado por los cambios climáticos. Entre los resultados se encuentran: 1. Los cultivos anuales pueden desplazarse fácilmente a nuevas áreas a medida que cambia la favorabilidad regional, mientras que el re-establecimiento de especies de ciclo largo (es decir, la uva y el olivo) sería costoso en términos de tiempo y dinero. El rango geográfico de las especies arbóreas que requieren enfriamiento para romper la latencia (vernalización) puede ser limitado en algunas áreas, debido al calentamiento climático, pero el rango podría ampliarse para otras. Por ejemplo, el rango del olivo se reduciría en la parte sur del estado debido a la falta de frío, y se ampliaría en las partes del norte hasta que se encuentre limitado por las bajas temperaturas del invierno. Predicciones similares pueden hacerse para los cultivos de frutas como el pomo y las frutas de hueso. 2. Así mismo, se afectaría la distribución y abundancia de plagas. Por ejemplo, el calentamiento del clima podría permitir la expansión del gusano rosado del algodón, a áreas que anteriormente eran poco hospitalarias para su aparición, en el valle de San Joaquín, y la tasa de daño podría aumentar en toda la zona de cultivo del algodón. Además, podría afectarse la distribución y abundancia de plagas de importancia económica, como la mosca de los olivos, la mosca mediterránea de las frutas y otras. Igualmente, el predominio de las especies en las redes alimentarias podría cambiar (por ejemplo, en la alfalfa) y el control biológico de especies invasivas podría sufrir un efecto adverso (por ejemplo, el piojo harinoso de la vid en la uva). La distribución y abundancia de las malezas invasivas, como el cardo amarillo estrellado, se verían afectadas y sería difícil predecir su control por su existencia y los nuevos agentes de control biológico, debido a los diferentes efectos del cambio climático en cada especie y en sus interacciones biológicas. 3. Se identificaron deficiencias mayores en nuestra capacidad de predecir los efectos del cambio climático sobre los sistemas biológicos. Por ejemplo, se precisa mejorar y desarrollar los modelos fisiológicos basados en sistemas, de los principales sistemas de cultivo con el fin de poder predecir mejor los efectos del cambio climático en los componentes del sistema. Los modelos podrían utilizarse como una guía en los esfuerzos de control biológico por existencia y por plagas exóticas. Un resultado inesperado fue la necesidad de ampliar los sistemas de compilación de datos meteorológicos, especialmente la compilación de datos de irradiación solar en una rejilla fina, tanto en tiempo como en espacio.
Species of plants and animals have requirements for growth, survival and reproduction that determine their geographic distribution, abundance, and interactions with other species. To analyze this complexity requires the development of models that include the effects of biotic and abiotic factors on species dynamics. The need for such capacity has increased as we face the threat of global warming. In this paper, tri-trophic system models of alfalfa, cotton, grape, olive and the noxious weed yellow star thistle are used to explore various aspects of climate warming on agriculture in California. General physiologically based demographic models that apply to all species in all trophic levels are used to simulate the effects on system dynamics of observed weather and those projected by climate change models. Geographic Information System (GIS) technology is used to map the predicted effects across the varied ecological zones of California, and marginal analysis of linear multiple regression models of simulation output is used to analyze biological interactions as affected by weather. The predictions of the biological models on the geographic distribution and abundance of the various species examined accords well with field observations. Furthermore, the models predict how the geographic range of the different species in the system listed above would be affected by climate change. Among the findings are: 1. Annual crops can be easily moved to new areas as regional favorableness changes while reestablishment of long-lived species (e.g., grape and olive) would be costly in terms of time and money. The geographic range of tree species requiring chilling to break dormancy (vernalization) may be limited in some areas due to climate warming, but the range may expand in others. For example, the range of olive would contract in the southern part of the state due to lack of chilling, and expand in northern areas until limited by low winter temperatures. Similar predictions could be made for pome and stone fruit crops. 2. Pest distribution and abundance would also be affected. For example, climate warming would allow pink bollworm in cotton to expand its range into formerly inhospitable areas of the San Joaquin Valley, and damage rates would increase throughout cotton?s range. The distribution and abundance of economically important pests such as olive fly, the Mediterranean fruit fly and others could be similarly affected. In addition, species dominance in food webs could change (e.g. in alfalfa) and the biological control of invasive species might be adversely affected (e.g. vine mealy bug in grape). The distribution and abundance of invasive weeds such as yellow star thistle would also be altered, and its control by extant and new biological control agents would be difficult to predict due to the differential effects of climate change on each species and on their biological interactions. 3. Major deficiencies were identified by our capacity to predict the effects of climate change on biological systems. For example, there is a need to improve existing and develop new physiologically based system models of the major cropping systems so as to better forecast the effects of climate change on system components. The models could be used to guide biological control efforts on extant and new exotic pests. The need to expand weather data gathering systems, especially the collection of solar radiation data on a fine grid in time and space was an unexpected finding.
Palabras clave:
cambio climático
control de plagas
factores ambientales
sistemas de información geográfica
estructura agrícola
calentamiento
mejoramiento del hábitat
cambio climático
control de plagas
factores ambientales
sistemas de información geográfica
estructura agrícola
calentamiento
mejoramiento del hábitat