Drivers & dynamics in the global oils and fats markets
Publicación:
Revista Palmas; Vol. 28 Núm. especial, (2007); 328-336
0121-2923
Revista Palmas; Vol. 28 Núm. especial, (2007); 328-336
0121-2923
Abstract
The vegetable oil market is at a unique crossroads as a result of: i) trends in demand for use in food, ii) greater concern about food quality and health aspects, and iii) demand for non-food use. Demand for use in food is at one of the highest levels in history due to increases in income and population, particularly in India and China. In the US and other developed countries, on the other hand, there is a greater level of concern about healthy diets, food quality and the presence of trans fatty acids. Lastly, the development of the bio-fuel market in general and of the biodiesel market in particular has generated an additional demand for oils which is even greater than demand for food purposes. Total demand is greater than supply, and it is to be expected that prices will increase and that new trade patterns will develop, mainly in response to the high concentration of demand for biodiesel in developed economies (especially the EU and the US). Demand tends to favor crops with larger oil content such as canola, sunflowers and palm. For its part, the development of the ethanol market in the US is leading to greater availability of DDGS, which is competing with soy meal as a source for protein mainly for dairy and beef cattle, but also for and bird feed. The result is downward pressure in the price of soy meal. Palm oil has become the most traded oil internationally and consumer demand is high in China and India due to its low price. In the US, palm oil consumption has also increased significantly, although from a small base, but in this case mainly due to fears about trans fatty acids. Also, the use of soybean oil in the food industry has fallen for the first time, both in absolute and relative terms. The main substitute in the US food products industry has been palm oil. Some of the main palm oil suppliers to the US are Malaysia, Indonesia and Colombia. Based on the increase in shipments of palm oil towards the US, we expect that the geographic proximity both of Colombia and Ecuador will lead to increase in supply from these countries, both for food and non-food uses. El mercado de aceites vegetales se encuentra en una coyuntura que es básicamente única como resultado de: i) los desarrollos en la demanda para usos alimenticios; ii) la mayor preocupación por la calidad de los alimentos y los aspectos de salud; y iii) la demanda para usos no alimenticios. La demanda para usos alimenticios se encuentra en uno de los niveles históricos más altos como resultado de los crecimientos en ingreso y población, en particular, en India y China. En Estados Unidos y en otros países desarrollados, por su parte, está teniendo lugar una mayor preocupación por la calidad de los alimentos y el contenido de ácidos trans. Finalmente, el desarrollo del mercado de biocombustibles en general y del biodiesel en particular, resulta en una demanda adicional por aceites que básicamente supera a la demanda para usos alimenticios. La demanda total supera a la oferta y es de esperar un aumento en los precios y el desarrollo de algunos nuevos patrones de comercio, en particular, a partir de la concentración en la demanda por biodiesel en las economías desarrolladas, principalmente la Unión Europea y Estados Unidos. La demanda sesgada por aceites favorece a aquellas oleaginosas con un mayor contenido de aceites, tales como la canola, el girasol y la palma de aceite. Por su parte, el desarrollo del mercado del etanol en Estados Unidos, está dando lugar a una creciente disponibilidad de DDGS, que están compitiendo con la pasta de soya como fuente de proteínas principalmente para el ganado bovino, carne y leche, pero también en la alimentación de puercos y aves. El resultado, es una presión bajista en el precio de la pasta de soya. La palma de aceite ya se ha convertido en el principal aceite comercializado en el contexto internacional y, a partir de su relativo bajo precio, es altamente demandado por los consumidores en China e India. En Estados Unidos, pero en este caso como resultado de los temores asociados con los ácidos trans, y si bien sobre una base baja, el consumo de aceite de palma presenta un aumento significativo. Asimismo, por primera vez, el uso de aceite de soya por parte de la industria alimenticia ha disminuido en términos absolutos y relativos. El principal reemplazo por parte de la industria alimenticia en Estados Unidos ha sido el aceite de palma. Entre los proveedores de palma a Estados Unidos se destacan Malasia, Indonesia y Colombia. A partir de los esperados mayores envíos de aceite de palma hacia el país del norte, se espera que la proximidad geográfica de Colombia y de Ecuador, les favorezca en el abastecimiento tanto para el uso alimenticio como no alimenticio.
The vegetable oil market is at a unique crossroads as a result of: i) trends in demand for use in food, ii) greater concern about food quality and health aspects, and iii) demand for non-food use. Demand for use in food is at one of the highest levels in history due to increases in income and population, particularly in India and China. In the US and other developed countries, on the other hand, there is a greater level of concern about healthy diets, food quality and the presence of trans fatty acids. Lastly, the development of the bio-fuel market in general and of the biodiesel market in particular has generated an additional demand for oils which is even greater than demand for food purposes. Total demand is greater than supply, and it is to be expected that prices will increase and that new trade patterns will develop, mainly in response to the high concentration of demand for biodiesel in developed economies (especially the EU and the US). Demand tends to favor crops with larger oil content such as canola, sunflowers and palm. For its part, the development of the ethanol market in the US is leading to greater availability of DDGS, which is competing with soy meal as a source for protein mainly for dairy and beef cattle, but also for and bird feed. The result is downward pressure in the price of soy meal. Palm oil has become the most traded oil internationally and consumer demand is high in China and India due to its low price. In the US, palm oil consumption has also increased significantly, although from a small base, but in this case mainly due to fears about trans fatty acids. Also, the use of soybean oil in the food industry has fallen for the first time, both in absolute and relative terms. The main substitute in the US food products industry has been palm oil. Some of the main palm oil suppliers to the US are Malaysia, Indonesia and Colombia. Based on the increase in shipments of palm oil towards the US, we expect that the geographic proximity both of Colombia and Ecuador will lead to increase in supply from these countries, both for food and non-food uses.
Palabras clave:
aceite de palma
grasas
aceites
comercialización
exportaciones
mercados mundiales
oferta y demanda
Contenido de lípidos
aceite de palma
grasas
aceites
comercialización
exportaciones
mercados mundiales
oferta y demanda
Contenido de lípidos