| dc.creator | López V., Juan M. | |
| dc.creator | Mesa F., Eloína | |
| dc.creator | Acosta, María C. | |
| dc.creator | Tovar, Juan P. | |
| dc.date | 2021-08-06 | |
| dc.identifier | https://publicaciones.fedepalma.org/index.php/palmas/article/view/13506 | |
| dc.description | Oil palm lethal wilt is the main phytosanitary limitation of oil palm cultivation in the Colombian Eastern Zone. Its causal agent is yet unknown, therefore, the existing management plans for this disease are based on general principles and successful experiences by some oil palm plantations. This work was carried out with the objective of determining which of the temporal epidemiological analysis tools is adequate to represent the development of the lethal wilt epidemic using data recorded by a sample of plantations in their routine phytosanitary censuses. Plots with a known initial time of the epidemic and a final incidence greater than 0.05 were selected, choosing 23 of the 651 available plots. The exponential, monomolecular, logistic, Gompertz, and Richards temporal epide- miological models were applied, evaluating five-time intervals from the beginning of the epidemic up to months 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36. Initially, non-linear models were fitted. However, despite showing good fit, these models did not meet goodness-of-fit criteria such as Hoggard’s (1985) asymmetry, Box’s (1971) percentage bias, nor the critical value of curvature of the parameters proposed by Bates and Watts (1980), which suggest the fit of the linear model. When adjusting the models in their linearized form, no good fits were observed and the verification of the normality assumptions of the residuals with zero mean and constant variance was not fulfilled either. As an alternative, we considered working with the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC), concluding that this methodology adequately describes the behavior of lethal wilt in the different plots by allowing smooth fluctuations and to compare the increase in the advance of the disease on a time scale. In this way, the AUDPC is an emerging tool with high potential to address the concerns about the influence of cultivars and the environment in the development of lethal wilt in Colombia. | en-US |
| dc.description | La Marchitez letal de la palma de aceite (ML) es la principal limitante fitosanitaria de la palmicultura en la Zona Oriental colombiana. Su agente causal aún es desconocido, por lo que los planes de manejo construidos se basan en principios generales y las experiencias exitosas de las plantaciones. Este trabajo se realizó con el objetivo de determinar cuáles de las herramientas de análisis epidemiológico temporal hasta ahora empleadas son adecuadas para representar el desarrollo de la epidemia de ML, de acuerdo con los datos registrados por las plantaciones en sus censos fitosanitarios rutinarios. Se seleccionaron lotes con tiempo inicial de la epidemia co- nocido e incidencia final mayor a 0,05, escogiendo 23 de los 651 lotes disponibles. Se aplicaron los modelos epidemiológicos temporales exponencial, monomolecular, logístico, Gompertz y Richards, evaluando cinco intervalos de tiempo desde el inicio de la epidemia hasta los 12, 18, 24, 30 y 36 meses. Inicialmente, se ajustaron modelos no lineales, los cuales, a pesar de mostrar buenos ajustes, no cumplieron con criterios de bondad de ajuste como asimetría de Hougaard (1985), el sesgo porcentual de Box (1971) y tampoco el valor crítico de curvatura de los parámetros propuesto por Bates y Watts (1980), sugiriendo el ajuste del modelo lineal. Al ajustar los modelos en su forma linealizada no se observaron buenos ajustes. Además, la verificación de los supuestos de normalidad de los residuales con media cero y varianza constante tampoco se cumplieron. Como alternativa, se consideró trabajar con el área bajo la curva de progreso de la enfermedad (ABCPE), identificando que esta metodología describe de forma adecuada el comportamiento de la ML en los diferentes lotes, al permitir suavizar las fluctuaciones y comparar el incremento de la enfermedad a escala temporal. De esta manera, el ABCPE se perfila como una herramienta con alto potencial para responder a inquietudes sobre la influencia del cultivar y el ambiente en el desarrollo de la ML en Colombia. | es-ES |
| dc.format | application/pdf | |
| dc.format | text/xml | |
| dc.language | spa | |
| dc.publisher | Fedepalma | es-ES |
| dc.relation | https://publicaciones.fedepalma.org/index.php/palmas/article/view/13506/13247 | |
| dc.relation | https://publicaciones.fedepalma.org/index.php/palmas/article/view/13506/13750 | |
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| dc.rights | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 | es-ES |
| dc.source | Palmas; Vol. 42 Núm. 2 (2021); 93-105 | es-ES |
| dc.source | 2744-8266 | |
| dc.source | 0121-2923 | |
| dc.subject | Phytoepidemiology | en-US |
| dc.subject | Disease management | en-US |
| dc.subject | Temporal models | en-US |
| dc.subject | Area under the disease progress curve | en-US |
| dc.subject | Fitoepidemiología | es-ES |
| dc.subject | Manejo de enfermedades | es-ES |
| dc.subject | Modelos temporales | es-ES |
| dc.subject | Área bajo la curva del progreso de la enfermedad | es-ES |
| dc.title | Describing the Behavior of Lethal Wilt in Oil Palm from Temporal Epidemiological Analysis | en-US |
| dc.title | Descripción del comportamiento de la Marchitez letal de la palma de aceite a partir del análisis epidemiológico temporal | es-ES |
| dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/article | |
| dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | |
